If you didn’t catch the news on Friday, the CDC lifted the “Do Not Sail” advisory that has been in place since March, that forbids cruise ships from operating in US waters. Even though the lifting of the ban has been anticipated for several weeks, there is some question as to what it actually means.
Is this the “all clear” signal cruisers have been waiting for to resume their plans?
Well… it’s a big more complicated than a simple YES or NO answer.
Most of the cruise lines have voluntarily suspended their operations into 2021, so this doesn’t mean you’ll be able to hop on a cruise ship for Thanksgiving. The CDC order does place a number of hurdles in place for cruise ships before they begin operating again. They will all need to be recertified, with several new requirements such as onboard Covid testing, and quarantine facilities. There will also be simulated voyages, and enhanced crew protections put in place prior to anyone getting on a ship again.
We watched a very similar situation play out in Europe this past summer, and with the occasional hiccup, the return to cruising over there generally went well.
Interestingly, the cruise lines are generally in front of this – they put plans in place to mitigate risks well in advance of the CDC ordering them to do so.
So yes… this is a positive step that indicates a move towards our new normal. This, of course, needs to be weighed off against the fact we appear to be entering the predicted second wave of the virus.
In reality, the earliest return to cruising is likely January, and the approach will be phased in with many ships not returning until April or May. In some ways, this timing is about right. Prior to the pandemic our clients’ average time between booking and sailing was about 9 months. That period has doubled since March, showing that people are still making plans, they are just making them significantly into the future.
This has also shown itself in 2021 and 2022 cruise itineraries being much more booked up than they normally would this far in advance. I was surprised last week when booking a Danube River Cruise for June of 2022, and I had to ask our clients to be flexible with their dates because several departures were sold out.
What should we make of all this?
- We know there is pent-up demand for travel out there. Availability is already getting tight for some products in 2021 and even 2022.
- The lifting of the CDC order may be a catalyst for people to book travel. Lots of people already have plans on the books for 2021 and 2022, and this latest development may cause a rush for others who have been in “wait and see” mode.
- The cruise lines themselves are going to be excessively cautious (as they have been in Europe) when resuming operations. They know they have to get this right.
- The original CDC order only applied to ships with more than 500 people and only those operating in US waters. Expect to see US-based river cruises back first, followed shortly by small-ship ocean cruises. The big ships will ease back into service, likely with the first cruises being conducted with reduced capacity to ensure social distancing.
Is this signal we’ve all been waiting for to return to “normal”? NO.
But it is a positive step in the right direction during a news cycle that is almost entirely negative.
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I look forward to hearing from you.
Sue Bradley
Sue Bradley
