Preview of 2023

My news feed is being jammed up with “Year in Review” stories. I don’t doubt our collective attention spans are getting shorter, but do I really need to be reminded of what happened only a few weeks or months ago?

I thought I’d take the opposite approach and look forward instead. There is inherent risk in attempting to predict the future, so please take mercy on me if you dig this up next year around this time and see how wrong I was. Here’s my attempt at a Preview of 2023 in the travel trade:

General Trends:

1. Longer Trip Duration – we saw this tick up in 2022, and it will continue. Part of this is “revenge travel” after the pandemic, and part of it logistic – if you’re flying to a different continent, you want to stay as long as possible, and do as much as you can. The nasty experience that air travel has become is also contributing to people avoiding shorter trips.
2. Cruise ships will get bigger and smaller – The Icon of the Seas will debut about a year from now and hold 7600 guests when fully loaded (whoa… imagine what that is like??). However, there is more growth in the number of ships holding fewer than 1000 people (now that’s more like it!). So, we’re seeing a move towards both ends of the capacity scale.
3. More overnight port stops for cruise ships – this is becoming increasingly common, and we’ll see this trend accelerate. It turns out people want to spend more than a few hours in the most interesting ports of call.
4. Promotional activity will focus more on adding amenities, rather than reducing prices. Luxury products rarely get discounted, but in mid-market travel products, look for the cruise lines to throw in gratuities, beverages packages, on board credits, or specialty dining instead of reducing prices.

Destination Trends:

Mexico and Canada are the two largest recipients of American tourists, but when we look beyond these two neighbors, here’s some places that will see more interest in 2023:

1. South America – There’s lots to see in the other half of the American hemisphere, so look for more cruise and packaged land offerings here.
2. Dubai and East Africa – Dubai has been popular for a while, but its (lack of) proximity to any other cruise ship port has made it less frequented by cruise ships. We’re seeing more stops in East Africa (Madagascar, Kenya, Tanzania, Zanzibar, Mozambique) and South Africa, making Dubai a more frequented terminus port.
3. East Asia – Travel to Pacific Asia hasn’t been fully restored yet, so with the exception of China, there will be much more cruise traffic in Asia in 2023.
4. Egypt – There has been huge interest here in 2022. We’ll see more of the same in 2023.
5. Croatia – This segment of the former Yugoslavia already gets lots of visitors. They just joined the Euro-zone, and adopted the Euro, which will make it even easier to travel there. Its proximity to Venice and Athens makes it very easy to find itineraries that include Croatian ports.
6. Saudi Arabia – OK… I don’t fully know how this is going to play out, but the Saudis have been very assertive in marketing themselves as a tourist destination. They also have 1100 miles of coastline, so presumably ships will begin to call in there sooner or later.

Here’s a few other predictions that fall in the “don’t shoot the messenger” category:

1. Airlines will continue to disappoint – Airline performance has improved in the second half of 2022, but air travel is still overwhelmingly the biggest complaint amongst travellers. Unfortunately, I have yet to see any indication that the airlines care to do anything about this, and Washington has done NOTHING in the past 45 years (since they were first deregulated) to address the bad behavior of this oligarchy. Everyone keeps hoping for something better, but hope is not a strategy. Foreign flagged carriers are better regulated, have better performance, and are required to offer meaningful compensation when they mess up.
2. It’s going to cost you more – Demand for travel products is outstripping supply. That alone will drive prices up. When you consider that inflation is running at about 7% in the United States, and even higher in Europe (closer to 10%), nobody should be surprised that travel products are going to cost more. If you’re waiting around for your favorite trip to get cheaper, I think you’ll be disappointed.
3. Shoreside Challenges – the labor shortage that we’re experiencing is NOT unique to the US. Many (if not most) countries where our clients end up are having similar problems. In 2022, it manifested in shortages of shore excursions, transportation, and hotel capacity. This will take a while yet to fix. The same patience that good travellers displayed in 2022 will be required a bit longer. If you’re expecting perfection, then you’ll need to stay at home for a while longer yet.

Today’s Travel Opportunities

OCEANIA

Oceania has a pricing strategy that increases prices at regular intervals the closer to departure. Our sources at the company tell us they are bumping prices up on January 9, so if you’re contemplating travelling with them, you’ll want to jump on it. Here’s a couple of examples:

Australia/New Zealand:

1. Sydney round-trip for 15-days departing February 13th, 2023.
2. Visit Hobart, Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Napier, Rotorua, Auckland, Bay of Islands
3. Ocean View: $6899 OR Veranda $8999 per person
4. Air add-on for $1700
5. BONUS: 4-day Sydney land package included ($2299 value)

Southeast Asia:

1. Singapore to Bangkok for 15 days departing May 18th, 2023.
2. Visit Indonesia, Brunei, Hanoi, Chan May (Vietnam), Saigon, Ko Samui.
3. Ocean View: $4999 OR Veranda $6599 per person.
4. Air add-on for $1300.
5. BONUS: 4-day Singapore land package included ($1499 value).

BOURBON THEMED CRUISE ON AMERICAN QUEEN VOYAGES

Cincinnati to Nashville for 9-days departing May 8th, 2023:

1. Visit Madison, Louisville, Brandenburg, Henderson, Paducah, Dover
2. Enjoy included Bourbon education seminars, Happy Hours, and Bourbon selections at dinner.
3. Inside: $3499; Open Veranda: $4274, Private Veranda: $5129 per person.
4. Remember that AQV includes a pre-cruise hotel night, open bar, unlimited excursions, and Wi-Fi on the ship.

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If you’re planning a trip, I’d love to help! Click here or call 800-876-0168 to get in touch today.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Sue Bradley