We’re all anxiously watching the news seeking a crystal ball that will predict when we’ll get to travel again.
I’ve been doing some homework, and here are a few tidbits you might find interesting:
- Travellers aren’t concerned about flying during covid. They’re concerned about their activities being restricted at their destination.
- Travel recovery will begin before there is widespread access to a vaccine, but it will be in specific pockets.
- There is pent-up demand for travel, but people are choosing to “wait and see”.
- There is a high correlation between sentiment (based on the news that day), and people’s buying intentions for travel.
It is this last bullet point I want to talk about, but first let me tell you where I’m gathering this information from.
McKinsey is a big management consulting firm, and they have always differentiated themselves by doing deep and extensive research. They authored a report in late September called “The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down”. It is NOT a “light” read – it’s jammed with great information, but for me it was a little bit like being back in college trying to sort through 100 pages of stats and insights, trying to mine out the relevant bits.
I managed to distill that down to the four bullet points above (likely to the dismay of the report’s authors).
The fourth bullet point above jumped out at me. Essentially it is saying that people’s willingness to buy travel is directly related to how they feel that day, and this sentiment is largely based on the news they consume.
Most of us are bombarded with several hours per day of TV news that is both repetitive and lacks context. So, it shouldn’t be a shock that it has big influence on both our “sentiment”, and future purchasing decisions.
So why do I think this is valuable?
The next several weeks are likely to be full of bad news. Public health officials told us many months ago to expect a second wave of covid in October/November time frame. It is clear this is underway in Europe already, and last time we weren’t far behind them. This also fits the pattern of the 1918 pandemic, so there is a reasonable assumption that things will temporarily get worse before they get better.
All the cruise lines and other travel companies have employees who work in a department aptly named “Revenue Management”, and who are going to be FREAKING OUT in the next few weeks, as people’s “sentiment” causes them to further delay purchase decisions.
The opportunity here is much like purchasing stocks when the market is low. If you are able to see beyond the short term, you can end up doing very well in the longer term. This applies whether you are considering new travel plans ssor are struggling with whether to keep the plans you have.
We’re already seeing some signals from vendors. Here are a few examples:
AMA Waterways: Free air to Europe on selected departures (but the list of departures is fairly large). AMA is particularly well suited to those like more active options when on a river ship.
Seabourn: Suite upgrades and 10% off when you pay by November 20. All the staterooms on Seabourn are suites (minimum 300 square feet), and it’s really nice to get a veranda for the price of an ocean view, and the option to save an additional 10%.
SilverSea: Much like Seabourn, this an ultra-luxury product, and they are offering included air, 10% off, or a $1000 on board credit. Our agency also often gets additional goodies on SilverSea, and for many 2021 cruises you can combine many, if not all of these offers.
There are two things to consider as we work our way through this pandemic:
- What is actually happening, and how that will affect our ability to travel.
- How the situation is affecting the psychology of people’s willingness to travel.
An awareness of these factors could serve you very well in making your next vacation plans.
Remember, the next few weeks are likely to be full of bad news. The cruise lines may react to public sentiment by offering some great deals, like the ones mentioned above. You’ll have the opportunity to “buy low” if you keep the longer term in mind.
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I look forward to hearing from you.
Sue Bradley
Sue Bradley
