Here we are in the last two weeks of 2020, which means we’ll all be deluged with media pontificating about the year that just was.
I’m quite happy to forget 2020 completely, so I’m rebelling and instead doing a “Year in Preview” article today.
There is no doubt that our last year under house-arrest will impact how we travel for many years to come, but here are the trends we are seeing now for the immediate months ahead:
Domestic Travel: The first half of the year will be all about domestic travel, and we are seeing keen interest in Alaska Cruising, as well as the Mississippi and Columbia Rivers, and luxury rail trips in both the United States and Canada. Cruising on the Great Lakes has also increased enormously in popularity. Here are links to a few articles we’ve written lately about these domestic travel offerings:
- US-based river cruises: https://pamperedcruiser.com/river-cruising-in-the-us/
- Alaska Lodges: https://pamperedcruiser.com/guide-to-alaska-land-packages/
- Luxury Rail in the US: https://pamperedcruiser.com/rocky-mountaineer-us-itinerary-rockies-to-the-red-rocks-luxury-train/
Close-in Bookings for 2021. With so much uncertainty, we will see many people book at the last minute. It makes sense to wait until you’re sure you’ll be able to do your trip the way you want to do it before committing. Just remember that everyone else is doing exactly the same thing, so you are risking that your preferred trip will be sold out. If you really want to do a trip in 2021, but are unsure, you’ll want to be sure you check out the relaxed booking policies that many suppliers are offering – you get the best of both worlds this way.
Earlier Bookings for 2022 and 2023. It seems that travelers didn’t take kindly to their 2020 plans having been cancelled, so they’re rebooking with a vengeance. 2022 is about 15% more booked up than it would normally be this far in advance (small ship and river cruises). Normally 2023 wouldn’t be available for booking yet, but it’s already open. Do you need to panic? No… you’ve still got lots of time, but if you’re the type of person that is very specific about when, where, stateroom selection etc., then you’ll want to be planning earlier than usual.
Less Inventory (and Newer Cruise Ships). The cruise lines have accelerated their retirement of older vessels as a cost savings measure for 2020 (the Carnival Group of companies alone retired 13 vessels). In addition, some of their new builds have been delayed as a result of the pandemic. The result: there will be a reduction in number of berths available for 2021 and 2022, and those remaining products will be newer.
From “High Touch” to “No Touch”. Princess announced that during their furlough, they managed to upgrade all their ships to the Medallion technology. The Princess Medallion is wearable technology that is connected to your smart phone. Its most basic features replace the traditional keycard used onboard ships, but it does much more than that. It expedites embarkation and disembarkation, allows you to order drinks or food from anywhere, acts as an onboard GPS, and reduces the need for physical contact, while enhancing the level of service. Princess may be first, but they won’t be the last – similar onboard technology is the future of cruising.
Brand Repositioning. Celebrity made the decision to include beverages, gratuities and wifi in the base cruise fare. This is a vast improvement over their previous confused marketing efforts that included some perks, for some people, some of the time. Having these inclusions also sets them apart from their main competitors, and aside from their larger ships, puts them in the category of the luxury lines in terms of inclusions. SilverSea has made the move to include both return airfare and shore excursions in their fares. This takes a luxury product and elevates it further. PrincessPlus fares, where you can pay an extra $40 per day to have beverages, gratuities and wifi included, gives clients a simple choice between a more inclusive offering, or a best-priced fare. These are just a few examples. Expect to see other cruise lines make similar moves.
Deals: As noted above, we are more likely to see the cruise lines include more in the price rather than providing deals in the form of price reductions. In the first half of 2021 you’ll see great incentives to get on board a ship. Most cruise lines have relaxed cancellation policies but be aware: most of those cancellation policies give you a future cruise credit but NOT a refund. You won’t lose anything, but don’t expect a cash refund. In the second half of 2021 and beyond, we do not expect to see price incentives to fill up the ships. With fewer ships, and reduced inventory, we may see the opposite.
Small is Big. There is no doubt that travelers are going to be more comfortable with the idea of smaller ships with fewer guests. This makes river cruising a no-brainer (river ships carry 100-180 guests), and as such river cruises are significantly more booked out for 2021 and 2022 compared to previous years. Small ocean ships (1000 passengers or less) are seeing similar trends. The movement towards smaller ships was already in motion prior to the pandemic, so this trend will accelerate beyond 2021.
Bubble Travel: This term would have required definition just one year ago! We are seeing a trend towards more multi-generational and multiple-family travel groups. Some yachts, and also land-cruise operators offer free spots with as few as 8 people. Part of the move to “bubble travel” is logistic – it’s pretty safe if you control who’s in your group. The other aspect is the pandemic has made the desire for people to travel with their children and/or grandchildren that much more urgent. We’ve realized life is short, and we never know when opportunities will be taken away from us (even if only temporarily!).
Longer Duration Vacations. This has been partially motivated by the necessity (for some of us) to quarantine when we get home, but the larger reason is because we missed travelling in 2020. In either case, we are seeing diminished interest in one week trips, and much more interest in trips 14-21 days or longer. The Europeans have been doing longer duration vacations for decades – maybe we’re finally catching up.
Covid Hangover: I have avoided telling people what to expect on their next cruise, simply because this a target with ever-changing goal posts. The requirements change weekly, and there is no ONE authority. The CDC controls all cruises touching a US port (hence maximum 7-night cruises for 2021), but international jurisdictions have their own authorities and their own rules. Also, the rules in April of 2021 will likely be vastly different than if you choose a cruise in November of 2021. There are a few things you can likely expect until further notice:
- Masks: You can expect air travel to require masks until further notice (it will be years). Outside of the United States, masks are not really a political issue, so any foreign travel will likely require a component of mask-wearing in crowded areas for at least another year.
- Regular testing: There will likely be daily testing on ships for all passengers and crew. This is a non-invasive saliva test. Viking recently put out a short video to explain how they will test all guests. Here’s the link: https://www.vikingrivercruises.com/my-trip/health-and-safety/health-and-safety-program.html
- No self-serve buffets: Those ships that insist on keeping buffets will have staff serve you.
- Lower capacity: The ships will start up with far fewer passenger (probably 50%), and gradually work their way back to full capacity.
- Sanctioned shore excursions: In the short term, only shore excursions offered through the cruise lines will be available. This will be highly dependent on the regulations in the port of call and will change frequently. It is possible that on a cruise with 6 ports of call, there will six different sets of regulations for shore excursions. As the virus subsides, this will likely be the first thing to return to normal.
- No fears about repatriation: The isolation of passengers aboard cruise ships last February and March is now universally recognized as a mistake. Authorities were working with the best information they had at the time, and the benefit of hindsight has put alternative protocols in place for cruises going forward.
- Vaccination requirements: There is NO indication that proof of vaccination will be required to board a cruise ship. However, there are some countries in the world that WILL require proof of vaccination that may affect your vacation plans.
The bottom line is that the environment onboard cruise ships can be much more tightly controlled than at hotels or resorts. One simple example is that on cruise ships, the crew does not go home to their families/communities every night like hotel workers do, so the risk of introducing unknown variables is greatly reduced.
The cruise lines are being very careful in how they resume service. While there were no cruises in North America this past year, there were both river ships and ocean ships sailing in both Europe and Asia. There were occasional hiccups (that were propelled to the top of the TV news). What the news media didn’t report were the thousands of guests that took cruise vacations in 2020 with some minor modifications, but who were otherwise pleased with the experience.
We have the benefit of the lessons learned by our European and Asian colleagues, as well as the vaccine, more reliable testing, better treatments, and increasing herd immunity.
While I don’t believe there will be a lead-up to some definitive “all-clear” signal, I do think we will see a phased and gradual return to safe travelling.
Bob and I have decided we will leave our mind open to possibilities as they present themselves in the first part of the year. We have also booked our first post-pandemic cruise. HINT: It’s domestic, and rich in food, music, history, and culture… but more on that in the New Year.
All the very best for Christmas, (belated) Hanukkah, New Years, and whatever else you may be celebrating this month.
2021 has much better things in store for us.
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I look forward to hearing from you.
Sue Bradley
Sue Bradley
